Especially when you take into consideration that the Pittsburgh Steelers had the extra bye week and advanced by winning two home games against their conference opponents. Plus the experience factor: many of these same Steelers have won two of the last five Super Bowls. Some may point to the most recent Super Bowl when the first time New Orleans Saints defeated the Indianapolis Colts, who tasted victory only four Februarys earlier, as proof that being there before means nothing when the ball is kicked off.

54 Super Bowl rings have been amassed by players on the current Steelers roster while only one Packer has the hardware, and that is John Kuhn, who earned one as a member of the 2005 Steelers practice squad. What is so shocking about this line is that the Steelers had a two-month streak snapped of being the favorite. Another eyebrow-raising stat is the the Packers have been the underdog in two playoff games this postseason.

But as two full weeks have nearly passed, the spread has dropped only 1/2 point. Many people have surely bet Pittsburgh and that would usually have a bigger effect on the line. But it has to be nearly split down the middle for it to be where it is right now. That is where the book makes out  - even bets means a win for the house.

Photo by Bill Menzel

Now they get to take on the defending Super Bowl champions.

NFC WILD CARD

New Orleans Saints (5) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (4)

Qwest Field has what is called ‘the 12th man,’ but more importantly for Seattle is the return of starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. The veteran missed the Ram game with a hip injury and his experience will at least give the Seahawks a fighter’s chance on Saturday afternoon. That’s not to say that they will win, but they will at least be within two scores before it’s too late. If Leon Washington can break a punt or kick return to the end zone, then things will actually become interesting.

The New Orleans Saints will have to win three road games in order to get back to the Super Bowl, something that they did not have to do a year ago. A huge hurdle will be in their backfield, where both Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory were placed on injured reserve. Reggie Bush and Julius Jones will have to pick up the slack in a big way.

Drew Brees will be the difference in this game. His experience and poise will pay dividends and the Saints will go marchin’ in for at least another week.

PREDICTION

Saints – 28, SEAHAWKS – 17

The NFL owner’s meetings begin on Sunday in Orlando and one of the things on the table is a proposal to alter the overtime rules for the playoffs. The new format would state that a team would win the game with a touchdown scored, but the opponent would get a possession if they only gave up a field goal. In the event that both teams made field goals, the sudden-death rule would then apply.

Got that? It’s a bit confusing but makes total sense. (Remember that this does not apply to regular season overtime games.) A high-powered offense such as the Vikings never had an opportunity to see the field and had to watch the game – and their championship dreams – kicked away.

24 of the 32 owners need to vote ‘yes’ for this to pass and you have to figure that most of the contending teams would be willing to have a second chance for a win if they give up a field goal following four quarters of playoff battle. But then again, some of the older owners may not be apt to go for such a drastic change in the game they love. Traditionalists tend to hold their ground, even when it is a detriment to the progress of the sport. A likely scenario is that the vote gets close this year and passes in 2011.

In the 2009 playoffs, two games were decided in overtime: the aforementioned Saints win and the Arizona Cardinals defeating the Green Bay Packers, 51-45, in the NFC Divisional Round on a defensive touchdown.

Since the overtime rule was adopted by the NFL during the regular season in 1974, there have been 445 games, with 312 of them being decided by a field goal (70.1%).

Photo by Bill Menzel

We certainly are right in that mix, having predicted that the Indianapolis Colts would not only win their second championship in four years, but do so easily. Boy, were we wrong. Drew Brees (32 for 39, 288 yards, two touchdowns) led the New Orleans Saints to their first title and was named the game MVP in the 31-17 victory. When his team needed a strong drive, he delivered. Neither Brees nor Saints head coach Sean Payton panicked when they trailed 10-0 in the first quarter and they stayed with an agressive game plan.

They went for it on 4th-and-goal from the 2-yard line in the second quarter (one in which they dominated) and came up short, but that didn’t stop them from going for a little trickery and recovering an onside kick to start the third quarter. The ensuing drive led to a touchdown and put New Orleans ahead, 13-10.

“We talked about it at halftime and it’s really a credit to every one of these players here,” said Payton. “There’s not enough room on this stage for all of them, but they carried out this play and I’m just proud. I’m proud of this team.”

The Colts answered with a 76-yard drive that culminated in a 4-yard burst into the end zone by running back Joseph Addai. No one could have surmised at the time that the 17-13 lead they now held would have been their last of the night.

Garrett Hartley hit a 47-yard field goal to cut the deficit to one and then in the fourth quarter, Brees went 7-for-7 on the drive of the game. He hit tight end Jeremy Shockey for a 2-yard scoring pass and then made it 24-17 by completing another pass on the two-point conversion.

Manning (31 for 45, 333 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception) took over with 5:42 remaining in the contest and was taking the underneath routes that the Saints defense was giving him. When he tried to go downfield, he was picked off by Tracy Porter, who brought it back 74 yards and the exclamation point.

When the scoreboard showed the final score, Bourbon Street exploded like 10 combined Mardi Gras parades. An unlikely turnover by arguably one of the best quarterbacks in the game sealed the deal, and pinpoint accuracy by his adversary led to that.

Photo By Bill Menzel

“I’m trying to give [the people of Haiti] them a little hope and trying to help as much as I can and do something positive for them,” the Indianapolis Colts wide receiver said at Media Day of the January 12 earthquake in his homeland. “So far, I’m very pleased with what we done with a lot of help and support and I know we couldn’t do it by ourselves.”

His NFL brethren have come through by doing their part, with Garcon as the lead man. “A lot of the guys have been trying to help,” he commented. “They have been coming to me asking me how they can help out and what is there to do to help. A lot of guys have been trying to lend their support. I’ve heard from a lot of guys on our team and a lot of guys on the Jets. A lot of guys have reached out to me.”

In only his second NFL season, the Mount Union product became one of Peyton Manning’s favorite targets. Garcon started 13 of the 14 games he played in and totaled 47 receptions (16.3 average) for 765 yards and four touchdowns. “We have a great relationship,” Garcon said of his quarterback. “We are getting more familiar with each other. It is a growing relationship and a growing process.”

Garcon played a big part in the 30-17 win over the Jets in the AFC Championship Game with 11 catches for 151 yards and a touchdown and celebrated on the field afterwards holding a Haitian flag. He has brought it down to Miami and hopes to make a habit of waving it in victory following Super Bowl XLIV versus the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. “Hopefully we will win and I will have it out there with me,” said Garcon.

He will have a lot more than just the Haitian flag with him.

Photo By Bill Menzel

In the AFC Championship Game, the upstart New York Jets were able to contain the 2009 NFL MVP, albeit for one quarter. The league’s number one defense actually sacked Manning on consecutive offensive plays over two series and at one point in the second quarter, the Jets led 17-6. Answering a Jay Feeley field goal, Manning sliced through Gang Green’s secondary to cut into the deficit at the half to four points.

While Jets rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez (17 for 30, 257 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception) played extremely well, the offense could not get going and went scoreless in the second half. At the same time, the Colts controlled the pace and Manning had his way. He threw for 377 yards and three scores to three different receivers in Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon and Dallas Clark en route to the 30-17 victory.

The Superdome hosted the NFC Championship Game and what was expected to be a close shootout between two offensive juggernauts in the New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings did not disappoint. Brett Favre came out slinging as expected, as did Drew Brees. At half time, the score was even at 14 and although they had four turnovers, the Vikes were very much in the game and actually were in position to win the game in the waning seconds. But a penalty for too many men in the huddle set them back five yards, setting up a third down. Instead of calling a conservative run to set up a long field goal attempt, Minnesota elected to throw.

Favre rolled to his right out of the pocket and threw into double coverage across his body. On cue, the ball was picked off and we were headed into the extra stanza. For all the great things that Favre (28 for 46, 310 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions) has done in 19 NFL seasons, he has a tendency to make a terrible decision at the worst time. It happened in the playoffs before, against the Giants and Eagles.

The Saints won the coin toss and went on a drive that seemed to go on forever due to three booth reviews. Garrett Hartley nailed a 40-yard field goal and there was happiness in the bayou with the scoreboard showing a 31-28 win for the home squad.

Super Bowl XLIV will be an interesting affair, one that will pit an old dog that has been there/done that in Manning and a bunch of wide-eyed Saints. Expect a lot of offense in this one, so take the over.

Photo by William J. Hauser

On Saturday, the New Orleans Saints rebounded after a lackluster end of the regular season with a convincing 45-14 knockout of the Arizona Cardinals. last season’s NFC representative in the Super Bowl. Reggie Bush scored two touchdowns as the Superdome rocked and rolled. Not much of a surprise there, as the Saints were expected to dispel of a team that may have still been showing the affects of an exhausting overtime win against Green Bay the week before.

That evening, the Baltimore Ravens were ousted by Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts, 20-3. They took a two-touchdown lead at half time and coasted the rest of the way. Three turnovers did the Ravens in, setting up Indy to play host next weekend one game away from Super Bowl XLIV. Although they played extremely well in taking out the Patriots in the Wild Card round, Baltimore was clearly outclassed versus a well-rested Colts squad.

On Sunday, Brett Favre turned back the clock and led his new team to the conference championship. The 40-year-old former Packer and Jet threw for four touchdowns (three to Sidney Rice) to lead the Minnesota Vikings to the 34-3 victory over Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys. Jerry Jones’ boys may have exorcised some December (and early January) demons by winning their division and then dispatching the Eagles, but were never even competitive in the dome.

Saving the best for last, the game of the weekend came in San Diego pitting the Chargers against the upstart New York Jets. Given no chance to move on, the Jets came out and played the 11-win Bolts tooth-and nail. They trailed by a mere seven points heading into the locker room and were clearly the team ‘hanging around’ against a formidable opponent.

Jay Feeley hit a 46-yard field goal to cut into the lead during the third quarter. Then the turning point in the game occurred towards the end of the quarter. The Jets downed a punt deep in the Chargers zone and a few plays later, Philip Rivers was intercepted by Jim Leonhard. A Chargers personal foul moved the ball inside the 10 at the start of the final stanza, which set up Mark Sanchez’s two-yard touchdown pass to tight end Dustin Keller and a 10-7 advantage.

Sanchez is not the only Jet rookie to be making a name for himself in the postseason, as running back Shonn Greene had another 100-yard performance and a long run for a score. He scampered 53 yards to give the Jets a 10-point lead with 7:26 left in the game. San Diego scored with 2:14 left when Rivers dove in from a yard out, but Kerry Rhodes recovered Nate Keading’s onside kick. The game wasn’t decided until Thomas Jones moved the chains on fourth and one with 1:09 left in the contest.

Keading, the AFC’s Pro Bowl representative, had a forgettable day with three missed field goals (36, 57 and 40 yards), which opened the door that the Jets kicked in on their way to Indianapolis for their first appearance in the AFC Championship Game since 1998.

Say what you want about the Jets and their outspoken rookie head coach, but Rex Ryan will have another week in the spotlight to psyche up his charges. The strategy has clearly worked and this team is going into Indy believing in themselves.

When the two teams met up in Week 16, Colts head coach Jim Caldwell pulled Manning in the third quarter with a 15-10 lead. The Jets rallied against back-up quarterback Lance Painter and that began their ascent towards where they are today. Once again, the Jets will be heavy underdogs and that is exactly the way they like it.

Photo by Bill Menzel

Speaking of the Saints (13-2), they have now lost two in a row in the dome after the hapless Tampa Bay Bucs (3-12) came back from a 17-0 hole to win 20-17 in overtime. Also in the NFC, the New York Giants – after coming out of the gate 5-0 – all but put their postseason hopes to rest with a putrid 41-9 pasting at the hands of the carolina Panthers. This occurred in their final game at Giants Stadium, with the grand opening of the still yet-unnamed new Meadowlands stadium opening up in 2010. The Panthers (7-8) have been out of the playoff picture for quite some time while the Giants dropped to 8-7 and left their rabid fanbase wondering what happened.

In Indianapolis, possible MVP candidate Peyton Manning was pulled from the game in the third quarter with the Colts nursing a five-point advantage. Back-up Curtis Painter was not effective and allowed the Jets to get right back into the game.

Not only did Gang Green do the unthinkable after dropping a heartbreaker last week to the Atlanta Falcons, but actually control their own destiny if they can defeat the Cincinnati Bengals (10-5) at home next Sunday night. The Jets (8-7) needed a lot of help heading onto the day and by the time they kicked off at 4:15, much had broke their way.

Miami (7-8) dropped a 27-20 decision at home to the Houston Texans (8-7) while the Steelers (8-7) took care of the Baltimore Ravens (8-7), 23-20, in the Steel City. All of this activity coupled with Jacksonville losing and falling to 7-8, the Jets slid up into one of the wild card spots in the AFC. Denver (8-7) lost by a late field goal in Philadelphia after a big comeback, but still can get in at 8-7 with tiebreakers.

Photo by William J. Hauser

The Rex Ryan era in New York has not even begun and he already has to deal with a little controversy. Calvin Pace, one of his starting linebackers, has been suspended for the first four games of the regular season for using a banned substance, which has yet to be identified.

“Calvin Pace of the New York Jets has been suspended without pay for the team’s first four regular-season games of 2009 for violating the NFL policy on performance enhancing substances,” said an NFL spokesperson. “Pace’s suspension begins on Saturday, September 5. He is eligible to return to the Jets’ active roster on Monday, October 5 following the team’s October 4 game against the New Orleans Saints. Pace is eligible to participate in all preseason practices and games.”

Pace, who joined the Jets last year after signing as a free agent from Arizona, said in a statement, “This is a situation that resulted from an over-the-counter dietary supplement that contained a substance that I did not know violated the League’s policy. I am responsible for what I put into my body and I should have paid closer attention to the League’s guidelines. I regret that this has happened and apologize to my teammates, the entire Jets organization as well as the fans. Hopefully, this does not distract from our ultimate goal of winning the Super Bowl.”

The Jets stated that they respected the league’s decision and look forward to Pace’s return once the suspension is served.

This may open the door for Vernon Gholston to get some quality playing time. After being selected sixth overall in the 2008 NFL Draft, he was a complete bust and fell into former head coach Eric Mangini’s doghouse. The second-year outside rushing linebacker, who already was getting a fresh start with Ryan, may benefit the most out of this.

The NFL has a long list of banned substances, which is in their “Policy on Anabolic Steroids and Related Substances.” If you have an hour or two to kill, here it is:

It’s going to be a hard sell for big and burly professional football players to convince anyone that they only took a product that is marketed as a weight loss drug for middle-aged women. The model on the company’s home page (www.starcaps.com) brings back memories of Mae West, for Christ’s sake! (No offense, Nikki Haskell)

StarCaps even had to put a disclaimer on their website and “temporarily suspend shipping” due to the lawsuit. Now, I totally understand that these players are just covering their asses by blaming the product, but the fact remains that a diuretic such as this is also used as a masking agent for steroids, more specifically, the banned substance bumetanide.

What may be an important piece of evidence is that Dr. John Lombardo (the Steroid Policy’s Independent Administrator) was aware of StarCaps containing bumetanide back in 2006, but failed to inform NFL players because he did not want to line up their excuse for them if they were caught using a masking agent.

Three players on the New Orleans Saints (Duece McAllister, Will Smith and Charles Grant), two Minnesota Vikings (Kevin Williams, Pat Williams) and one Atlanta Falcon (Grady Jackson) all failed drug screening tests for bumetanide. All but Jackson, who has already served his suspension, can miss four games each if found guilty. They have filed appeals with the league and are awaiting hearings.